THIS WEEK’S BRIEF

Every organization in sports eventually faces the same challenge: how to rebuild, adapt, or reinvent while the business is still running.

This week, four stories illustrate different versions of that problem. The NCAA restructured its revenue base without disrupting the tournament that funds it. Manchester United committed to replacing Old Trafford while continuing to play there. The Chicago Stars opened a training facility while still searching for a permanent home. Tracy McGrady relaunched a league he had been funding out of pocket for years.

None of them had the luxury of starting over, but nonetheless, all of them found a way forward.

COLLEGE ATHLETICS

March Madness Revenue: When Diversification Becomes Strategy

For decades, the NCAA's business model could be summarized in a single line: the men's basketball tournament paid for everything else.

That's no longer true. And that shift is the most important financial story in college sports.

Under President Charlie Baker, the NCAA has quietly executed one of the most significant revenue transformations in American sports. The numbers tell a clear story:

  • The CBS/Turner deal now pays $1.02 billion annually, but it represented 80% of total NCAA revenue in 2015. Today, that share has dropped to 64%.

  • Revenue from "other sources," including the Frozen Four, College World Series, and new championships, has grown from $192 million to $575 million in the same span.

  • Total NCAA revenue reached $1.57 billion in fiscal 2025, with $279 million coming from ticket sales and sponsorships across all championships.

  • The new women's tournament deal with ESPN averages $115 million annually, more than triple the previous agreement's $35.7 million average.

  • A new second-tier women's postseason tournament, the WBIT, has launched alongside an expanded data deal with Genius Sports.

The unit payout system has also evolved. Starting this year, units now apply to Final Four and championship games, not just through the Elite Eight. The top conferences will receive the largest shares, but payouts extend across the landscape: the Big East and WCC at $6.3 million, the Atlantic 10 and MAC at $4.2 million.

The NCAA spent years relying on a single tournament to fund an entire organization. Now, it's building something more resilient through diversification.

SPORTS REAL ESTATE

Manchester United's New Old Trafford: Reinvention Begins

Old Trafford has been Manchester United's home since 1910. For more than a century, the stadium has been synonymous with the club itself. But the next chapter won't be written through preservation. It will be written through replacement.

The club announced it will build a new stadium rather than redevelop the existing one. The reason is instructive: engineering constraints involving an adjacent railway track made renovation impractical.

  • The project is now in "stage two," a seven-month period focused on detailed design.

  • Architecture firm Foster + Partners has been engaged since 2024, and construction firms are already being consulted.

  • Lord Norman Foster believes the stadium can be built in five years.

  • A disputed 100-acre site currently used as a rail freight terminal by Freightliner (owned by Brookfield) must be resolved, with a hoped-for resolution by summer 2026.

  • Conceptual designs feature an eye-catching canopy, though final elements depend on the land acquisition.

  • The project includes 100,000 seat stadium and 15,000 new homes. Project sponsors estimate an annual contribution of £7 billion ($9.6 billion) to the UK economy, though actual impact will depend on construction timelines and economic conditions.

  • The club confirmed it will remain at Old Trafford during construction. One proposal for the existing stadium: reduce capacity to house the women's and academy teams.

The effort is part of the Old Trafford Regeneration Mayoral Development Corporation, chaired by Lord Sebastian Coe and backed by Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham.

VENUE STRATEGY

Chicago Stars FC: Building the Foundation Comes First

Chicago Stars FC opened the NWSL's first club-owned performance center this year. But finding a permanent home for matches has proven far more difficult.

The club sought a unique use permit to play 15 to 17 games at Northwestern's new Ryan Field in Evanston. That application has been withdrawn following opposition from neighboring Wilmette officials.

  • Ryan Field is a 35,000-seat venue set to open in October for football.

  • Since 2016, the Stars played at SeatGeek Stadium in Bridgeview, a location criticized for being far from transit and difficult to access.

  • The team's 2025 average attendance of fewer than 4,000 was the lowest in the NWSL.

  • Majority owner Laura Ricketts purchased the team in 2023.

  • The new training center in Bannockburn is located more than 15 miles north of Evanston.

  • Despite the withdrawal, the team "did not absolutely rule out a bid in future years" to play at Ryan Field.

  • Their 2026 debut was a 5-2 victory over Orlando Pride at Martin Stadium.

The Stars' situation illustrates a principle that applies across all of sports real estate: a team can have the best players, the strongest ownership, and the most committed fans, but having a successful venue is an essential element.

EMERGING LEAGUES

Ones Basketball League: When the Product Changes, Format Must Follow

Tracy McGrady noticed something that most sports executives missed: his kids preferred watching pickup basketball on YouTube over NBA games. That observation became the founding thesis for the Ones Basketball League.

One-on-one basketball, played in intimate settings, is built for content as much as competition.

The Ones Basketball League is a bet on format, not scale. It assumes that attention has fragmented, that audiences want intimacy over spectacle, and that the future of sports content might look nothing like what came before.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

  • PWHL Secures First National U.S. TV Broadcast: Scripps Sports and Ally Financial partnered with the PWHL to broadcast its first-ever game on national linear television in the U.S. The March 28 game between the New York Sirens and Montréal Victoire will air on ION, reaching 126 million households. The league is approaching 2 million all-time fans with 20% year-over-year attendance growth, fueled by Team USA's Olympic gold medal in Milan.

  • WNBA and Players Union Reach Verbal Agreement: After 17 months of negotiations and 100+ hours of marathon sessions the WNBA and WNBPA reached a verbal agreement on a transformational CBA. The salary cap jumps to $7 million (from $1.5M), supermax contracts start at $1.4 million (from $249K), average salaries rise to roughly $600,000 (from $120K), and players receive nearly 20% of gross revenue. The deal still requires ratification but clears the way for the 30th season to tip off May 8.

  • JPMorgan Chase Launches Athlete Council with Brady, Wade, Wilson: JPMorgan Chase formed an Athlete Council led by Dwyane Wade (chair) and featuring Tom Brady, Sue Bird, Alex Morgan, Megan Rapinoe, A'ja Wilson, and Jalen Brunson. The initiative targets more than 500,000 college, working, and retired athletes with wealth management from NIL deals through retirement. About one in six NFL players declares bankruptcy within 12 years of retiring, underscoring the market opportunity.

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. All financial data presented represents historical performance of specific venues and should not be construed as indicative of future results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment in sports venues and related assets involves significant risk, including potential loss of principal. The behavioral economics concepts discussed are based on academic research and historical case studies that may not apply to all situations or guarantee similar outcomes. No representation is made that any investment approach discussed herein will or is likely to achieve results similar to those shown. Any investment decision should be made only after careful consideration of all relevant factors and consultation with qualified financial, tax, and legal advisors. Momentous Sports and Magnolia Hill Partners make no representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or completeness of this information and disclaim any liability arising from your use of this information. This material has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to ensure unbiased reporting, and there are no restrictions on trading in the securities discussed herein prior to publication. For qualified accredited investors interested in learning more about our educational materials and investment approach, please contact us directly for a confidential discussion.

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